Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins
August 8, 2026 · MLB
Walbert Ureña vs Sandy Alcantara
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Marlins wins about 50 times out of 100.
50%
Sim projects a total of 7.8 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (11% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 50.4%, away 49.6%.
Projected score: home 3.9, away 3.9.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): +0.0.
Run line: home -1.5 (34.4% cover), away 1.5 (65.6% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/8/2026, 2:05:19 PM.