Receipts, not claims
A claim without a receipt is worth exactly nothing - anyone can type "80% win rate" into a graphic. Every number below is read live off our own database, the same reads the record page makes, and none of it is a pick.
Side by side
What you usually get
"80% win rate!"
A number with no sample size, no date range, and no source data - unverifiable by design. There is nothing to click through to.
"Made $12,000 in my first month!"
A dollar figure with no unit size, no bankroll, and no losing weeks shown - a single lucky parlay dressed up as a system.
A feed of winning-slip screenshots
Survivorship bias as a business model - the losing slips simply never get posted, so the feed cannot be wrong.
"Our model beats Vegas"
Said with no Brier score, no baseline, and no losing model shown anywhere - a claim that cannot be graded because nothing is published to grade.
What TrueTail publishes
Brier 0.2498, n=187
MLB game sim, live sample size included. We do not yet beat always picking the home team (0.2495) - that is the whole point of this page, we show the miss instead of hiding it.
63.6% beat the close, n=44
Tails record: closing-line value (CLV), graded against the real closing number, rolling 30-day window.
25% machine-graded, n=9
Grade provenance: how many graded slips network-wide were graded automatically off the closing line, not typed in by a human after the fact.
Every graded slip carries a grade receipt
Open any public slip and see exactly how it was graded - the closing line it was checked against, and whether a machine or a human graded it.
Four steps, no login required
- Open the record. Every backtest and every CLV number on this page links straight there - it updates live off the same database, so it cannot be a stale screenshot.
- Read the methodology. The exact de-vig math, the outlier filter, and the letter-grade thresholds - not a marketing paragraph, the actual rules the code runs.
- Check a public slip's grade receipt. Any shared slip shows how it closed and whether it was graded by the machine or by hand - the tamper trail is visible, not asserted.
- Watch the Monday Market Report accrue. A new week publishes every Monday, and it never edits a past week - the archive only grows, so a skeptic can watch our own record build in public over time.
Nothing on this page is a pick, and TrueTail accepts no wagers. Curious what a number means? Read the methodology or go straight to the record.