Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
August 6, 2026 · MLB
Ryan Johnson vs Brandon Young
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Orioles wins about 56 times out of 100.
56%
Sim projects a total of 8.5 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 56.4%, away 43.6%.
Projected score: home 4.6, away 3.9.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): +0.7.
Run line: home -1.5 (41.0% cover), away 1.5 (59.0% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/6/2026, 2:05:14 PM.