Houston Astros at San Diego Padres
August 8, 2026 · MLB
Peter Lambert vs Michael King
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Astros wins about 52 times out of 100.
52%
Sim projects a total of 7.7 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (11% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 48.2%, away 51.8%.
Projected score: home 3.8, away 4.0.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): -0.2.
Run line: home -1.5 (31.8% cover), away 1.5 (68.2% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/8/2026, 2:05:10 PM.