Athletics at Boston Red Sox
August 7, 2026 · MLB
Jack Perkins vs Payton Tolle
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Red Sox wins about 61 times out of 100.
61%
Sim projects a total of 8.4 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 60.7%, away 39.3%.
Projected score: home 4.8, away 3.6.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): +1.2.
Run line: home -1.5 (45.0% cover), away 1.5 (55.0% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/7/2026, 2:05:23 PM.