Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
August 3, 2026 · MLB
Shane Bieber vs Cristian Javier
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Astros wins about 59 times out of 100.
59%
Sim projects a total of 8.2 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 58.5%, away 41.5%.
Projected score: home 4.6, away 3.7.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): +1.0.
Run line: home -1.5 (42.5% cover), away 1.5 (57.5% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/3/2026, 2:05:06 PM.