Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
August 4, 2026 · MLB
Trey Yesavage vs Hayden Wesneski
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Astros wins about 57 times out of 100.
57%
Sim projects a total of 8.1 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 56.6%, away 43.4%.
Projected score: home 4.5, away 3.6.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): +0.8.
Run line: home -1.5 (41.2% cover), away 1.5 (58.8% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/4/2026, 2:05:09 PM.