Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics
September 9, 2026 · MLB
Braydon Fisher vs Brady Basso
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Athletics wins about 53 times out of 100.
53%
Sim projects a total of 9.6 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (8% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 53.3%, away 46.7%.
Projected score: home 5.0, away 4.6.
Dispersion: 3.30.
Mean margin (home): +0.4.
Run line: home -1.5 (39.6% cover), away 1.5 (60.4% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 9/9/2026, 2:05:17 PM.