Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs
August 6, 2026 · MLB
Dylan Cease vs David Peterson
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Cubs wins about 53 times out of 100.
53%
Sim projects a total of 8.4 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 52.6%, away 47.4%.
Projected score: home 4.4, away 4.0.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): +0.3.
Run line: home -1.5 (37.3% cover), away 1.5 (62.7% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/6/2026, 2:05:11 PM.