Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals
July 28, 2026 · MLB
Shane Bieber vs Cade Cavalli
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Nationals wins about 57 times out of 100.
57%
Sim projects a total of 10.2 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (8% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 57.4%, away 42.6%.
Projected score: home 5.5, away 4.6.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): +1.0.
Run line: home -1.5 (44.3% cover), away 1.5 (55.7% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/28/2026, 2:05:01 PM.