Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies
August 8, 2026 · MLB
Max Scherzer vs Aaron Nola
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Phillies wins about 59 times out of 100.
59%
Sim projects a total of 8.8 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 58.8%, away 41.2%.
Projected score: home 5.0, away 3.9.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): +1.1.
Run line: home -1.5 (44.1% cover), away 1.5 (55.9% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/8/2026, 2:05:13 PM.