Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
July 29, 2026 · MLB
Chris Sale vs Christian Scott
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Mets wins about 53 times out of 100.
53%
Sim projects a total of 9.1 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 53.3%, away 46.7%.
Projected score: home 4.7, away 4.4.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): +0.4.
Run line: home -1.5 (39.0% cover), away 1.5 (61.0% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/29/2026, 2:05:07 PM.