Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels
August 2, 2026 · MLB
Jacob Misiorowski vs Walbert Ureña
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Brewers wins about 53 times out of 100.
53%
Sim projects a total of 7.2 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 6 total runs most often (11% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 47.5%, away 52.5%.
Projected score: home 3.5, away 3.7.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): -0.2.
Run line: home -1.5 (30.9% cover), away 1.5 (69.1% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/2/2026, 2:05:09 PM.