Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
July 28, 2026 · MLB
Logan Henderson vs Landen Roupp
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Giants wins about 51 times out of 100.
51%
Sim projects a total of 8.4 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (11% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 50.7%, away 49.3%.
Projected score: home 4.2, away 4.2.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): +0.1.
Run line: home -1.5 (35.3% cover), away 1.5 (64.7% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/28/2026, 2:05:03 PM.