Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
July 29, 2026 · MLB
Shane Drohan vs Logan Webb
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Brewers wins about 51 times out of 100.
51%
Sim projects a total of 8.4 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 48.8%, away 51.2%.
Projected score: home 4.2, away 4.2.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): -0.1.
Run line: home -1.5 (33.9% cover), away 1.5 (66.1% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/29/2026, 2:05:04 PM.