St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays
August 1, 2026 · MLB
Quinn Mathews vs Kevin Gausman
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Blue Jays wins about 51 times out of 100.
51%
Sim projects a total of 7.8 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 51.2%, away 48.8%.
Projected score: home 3.9, away 3.9.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): +0.1.
Run line: home -1.5 (34.3% cover), away 1.5 (65.7% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/1/2026, 2:05:01 PM.