St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
September 8, 2026 · MLB
Quinn Mathews vs Landen Roupp
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Giants wins about 51 times out of 100.
51%
Sim projects a total of 8.7 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 50.9%, away 49.1%.
Projected score: home 4.5, away 4.3.
Dispersion: 3.29.
Mean margin (home): +0.2.
Run line: home -1.5 (36.3% cover), away 1.5 (63.7% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 9/8/2026, 2:05:03 PM.