St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees
August 3, 2026 · MLB
Michael McGreevy vs Cam Schlittler
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Yankees wins about 53 times out of 100.
53%
Sim projects a total of 8.3 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 53.3%, away 46.8%.
Projected score: home 4.4, away 3.9.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): +0.4.
Run line: home -1.5 (37.8% cover), away 1.5 (62.2% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/3/2026, 2:05:04 PM.