Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
July 29, 2026 · MLB
Matthew Boyd vs Dustin May
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Cardinals wins about 54 times out of 100.
54%
Sim projects a total of 8.5 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 53.5%, away 46.5%.
Projected score: home 4.4, away 4.0.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): +0.4.
Run line: home -1.5 (38.5% cover), away 1.5 (61.5% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/29/2026, 2:05:03 PM.