Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals
August 8, 2026 · MLB
Clay Holmes vs Seth Lugo
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Cubs wins about 54 times out of 100.
54%
Sim projects a total of 9.3 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 46.1%, away 53.9%.
Projected score: home 4.4, away 4.9.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): -0.5.
Run line: home -1.5 (32.0% cover), away 1.5 (68.0% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/8/2026, 2:05:21 PM.