Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
July 28, 2026 · MLB
Brandon Pfaadt vs Bubba Chandler
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Pirates wins about 56 times out of 100.
56%
Sim projects a total of 10.0 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 56.3%, away 43.7%.
Projected score: home 5.4, away 4.6.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): +0.8.
Run line: home -1.5 (42.6% cover), away 1.5 (57.4% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/28/2026, 2:05:05 PM.