Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
July 29, 2026 · MLB
Eduardo Rodriguez vs Jared Jones
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Pirates wins about 58 times out of 100.
58%
Sim projects a total of 10.1 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 58.2%, away 41.8%.
Projected score: home 5.6, away 4.5.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): +1.0.
Run line: home -1.5 (44.1% cover), away 1.5 (55.9% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/29/2026, 2:05:05 PM.