Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals
September 9, 2026 · MLB
Zac Gallen vs Daniel Lynch IV
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Royals wins about 54 times out of 100.
54%
Sim projects a total of 9.7 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (8% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 53.6%, away 46.4%.
Projected score: home 5.1, away 4.6.
Dispersion: 3.30.
Mean margin (home): +0.5.
Run line: home -1.5 (40.1% cover), away 1.5 (59.9% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 9/9/2026, 2:05:11 PM.