Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
August 5, 2026 · MLB
Eric Lauer vs Shota Imanaga
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Cubs wins about 57 times out of 100.
57%
Sim projects a total of 8.6 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 57.3%, away 42.7%.
Projected score: home 4.7, away 3.8.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): +0.9.
Run line: home -1.5 (42.2% cover), away 1.5 (57.8% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/5/2026, 2:05:16 PM.