San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
August 1, 2026 · MLB
Tyler Mahle vs Walker Buehler
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Padres wins about 56 times out of 100.
56%
Sim projects a total of 8.2 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 56.0%, away 44.0%.
Projected score: home 4.4, away 3.8.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): +0.6.
Run line: home -1.5 (39.7% cover), away 1.5 (60.3% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/1/2026, 2:05:05 PM.