Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
July 28, 2026 · MLB
Gavin Williams vs TBD
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Guardians wins about 54 times out of 100.
54%
Sim projects a total of 8.2 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 46.0%, away 54.0%.
Projected score: home 3.9, away 4.4.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): -0.5.
Run line: home -1.5 (30.9% cover), away 1.5 (69.1% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/28/2026, 2:05:10 PM.