Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
July 29, 2026 · MLB
Joey Cantillo vs Brady Singer
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Guardians wins about 54 times out of 100.
54%
Sim projects a total of 8.0 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 45.5%, away 54.5%.
Projected score: home 3.7, away 4.3.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): -0.5.
Run line: home -1.5 (30.3% cover), away 1.5 (69.8% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/29/2026, 2:05:12 PM.