Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers
July 29, 2026 · MLB
Emerson Hancock vs Eric Lauer
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Dodgers wins about 52 times out of 100.
52%
Sim projects a total of 8.6 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 52.2%, away 47.8%.
Projected score: home 4.4, away 4.2.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): +0.2.
Run line: home -1.5 (36.9% cover), away 1.5 (63.1% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/29/2026, 2:05:10 PM.