Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
August 4, 2026 · MLB
Ryan Gusto vs Grant Holmes
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Marlins wins about 52 times out of 100.
52%
Sim projects a total of 8.8 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 48.2%, away 51.8%.
Projected score: home 4.4, away 4.5.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): -0.2.
Run line: home -1.5 (33.8% cover), away 1.5 (66.2% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/4/2026, 2:05:19 PM.