New York Mets at Miami Marlins
September 9, 2026 · MLB
Robert Stock vs Janson Junk
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Mets wins about 52 times out of 100.
52%
Sim projects a total of 8.2 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 48.2%, away 51.8%.
Projected score: home 4.0, away 4.3.
Dispersion: 3.30.
Mean margin (home): -0.2.
Run line: home -1.5 (33.1% cover), away 1.5 (66.9% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 9/9/2026, 2:05:08 PM.