Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
September 8, 2026 · MLB
Riley Cornelio vs Casey Mize
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Padres wins about 55 times out of 100.
55%
Sim projects a total of 7.7 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 55.0%, away 45.0%.
Projected score: home 4.2, away 3.6.
Dispersion: 3.29.
Mean margin (home): +0.6.
Run line: home -1.5 (38.4% cover), away 1.5 (61.6% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 9/8/2026, 2:05:04 PM.