Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
August 5, 2026 · MLB
Jake Irvin vs Andrew Painter
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Nationals wins about 52 times out of 100.
52%
Sim projects a total of 9.5 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (8% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 48.2%, away 51.8%.
Projected score: home 4.6, away 4.9.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): -0.3.
Run line: home -1.5 (33.7% cover), away 1.5 (66.3% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/5/2026, 2:05:05 PM.