San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
August 3, 2026 · MLB
Michael King vs Brandon Pfaadt
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Padres wins about 53 times out of 100.
53%
Sim projects a total of 9.0 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 47.4%, away 52.6%.
Projected score: home 4.3, away 4.6.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): -0.4.
Run line: home -1.5 (32.6% cover), away 1.5 (67.4% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/3/2026, 2:05:10 PM.