San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
August 4, 2026 · MLB
Randy Vásquez vs Eduardo Rodriguez
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Padres wins about 52 times out of 100.
52%
Sim projects a total of 9.2 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 47.7%, away 52.3%.
Projected score: home 4.5, away 4.7.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): -0.2.
Run line: home -1.5 (33.9% cover), away 1.5 (66.1% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/4/2026, 2:05:20 PM.