Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles
August 2, 2026 · MLB
Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Bradish
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Orioles wins about 54 times out of 100.
54%
Sim projects a total of 8.3 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 54.4%, away 45.6%.
Projected score: home 4.5, away 4.0.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): +0.5.
Run line: home -1.5 (39.1% cover), away 1.5 (60.9% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/2/2026, 2:05:17 PM.