Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
August 6, 2026 · MLB
Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Brewers wins about 54 times out of 100.
54%
Sim projects a total of 7.7 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 54.1%, away 45.9%.
Projected score: home 4.1, away 3.7.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): +0.5.
Run line: home -1.5 (37.5% cover), away 1.5 (62.5% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/6/2026, 2:05:04 PM.