Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
August 1, 2026 · MLB
Braxton Ashcraft vs Andrew Abbott
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Pirates wins about 51 times out of 100.
51%
Sim projects a total of 8.5 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 49.3%, away 50.8%.
Projected score: home 4.2, away 4.3.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): -0.1.
Run line: home -1.5 (34.4% cover), away 1.5 (65.6% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/1/2026, 2:05:14 PM.