Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
August 2, 2026 · MLB
Mitch Keller vs Chase Burns
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Reds wins about 51 times out of 100.
51%
Sim projects a total of 8.3 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 50.7%, away 49.3%.
Projected score: home 4.2, away 4.2.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): +0.1.
Run line: home -1.5 (35.1% cover), away 1.5 (64.8% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/2/2026, 2:05:14 PM.