Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
August 1, 2026 · MLB
Jacob deGrom vs Ronel Blanco
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Astros wins about 57 times out of 100.
57%
Sim projects a total of 8.3 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 57.0%, away 43.0%.
Projected score: home 4.5, away 3.8.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): +0.7.
Run line: home -1.5 (40.9% cover), away 1.5 (59.1% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/1/2026, 2:05:10 PM.