Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves
September 8, 2026 · MLB
Freddy Peralta vs AJ Smith-Shawver
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Braves wins about 52 times out of 100.
52%
Sim projects a total of 8.3 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (10% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 52.4%, away 47.6%.
Projected score: home 4.2, away 4.0.
Dispersion: 3.29.
Mean margin (home): +0.2.
Run line: home -1.5 (36.6% cover), away 1.5 (63.3% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 9/8/2026, 2:05:17 PM.