Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
August 7, 2026 · MLB
Drew Rasmussen vs Logan Gilbert
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Rays wins about 51 times out of 100.
51%
Sim projects a total of 7.6 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 7 total runs most often (11% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 48.7%, away 51.3%.
Projected score: home 3.7, away 3.8.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): -0.1.
Run line: home -1.5 (32.6% cover), away 1.5 (67.4% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/7/2026, 2:05:06 PM.