Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies
August 3, 2026 · MLB
Ian Seymour vs Michael Lorenzen
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Rays wins about 51 times out of 100.
51%
Sim projects a total of 9.9 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (8% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 49.4%, away 50.6%.
Projected score: home 5.0, away 5.0.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): -0.1.
Run line: home -1.5 (35.8% cover), away 1.5 (64.3% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/3/2026, 2:05:08 PM.