Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies
August 5, 2026 · MLB
Nick Martinez vs Tomoyuki Sugano
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Rays wins about 51 times out of 100.
51%
Sim projects a total of 10.2 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (8% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 49.3%, away 50.7%.
Projected score: home 5.1, away 5.1.
Dispersion: 3.23.
Mean margin (home): -0.0.
Run line: home -1.5 (36.4% cover), away 1.5 (63.6% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/5/2026, 2:05:12 PM.