Boston Red Sox at Athletics
July 28, 2026 · MLB
Jake Bennett vs Gage Jump
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Red Sox wins about 57 times out of 100.
57%
Sim projects a total of 10.4 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (8% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 42.7%, away 57.3%.
Projected score: home 4.7, away 5.7.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): -1.0.
Run line: home -1.5 (30.3% cover), away 1.5 (69.7% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/28/2026, 2:05:12 PM.