Boston Red Sox at Athletics
July 29, 2026 · MLB
Patrick Sandoval vs Jacob Lopez
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Red Sox wins about 56 times out of 100.
56%
Sim projects a total of 10.4 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (8% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 44.4%, away 55.6%.
Projected score: home 4.9, away 5.5.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): -0.7.
Run line: home -1.5 (31.9% cover), away 1.5 (68.1% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/29/2026, 2:05:14 PM.