Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
August 8, 2026 · MLB
Chase Burns vs Andrew Alvarez
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Reds wins about 55 times out of 100.
55%
Sim projects a total of 9.5 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 45.3%, away 54.7%.
Projected score: home 4.5, away 5.2.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): -0.6.
Run line: home -1.5 (31.5% cover), away 1.5 (68.5% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/8/2026, 2:05:01 PM.