Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
July 28, 2026 · MLB
Michael Lorenzen vs Michael King
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Padres wins about 57 times out of 100.
57%
Sim projects a total of 8.5 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 57.0%, away 43.0%.
Projected score: home 4.6, away 3.9.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): +0.8.
Run line: home -1.5 (41.2% cover), away 1.5 (58.8% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/28/2026, 2:05:04 PM.