Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies
August 1, 2026 · MLB
Luinder Avila vs Ryan Feltner
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Rockies wins about 51 times out of 100.
51%
Sim projects a total of 9.8 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 50.5%, away 49.5%.
Projected score: home 5.0, away 4.9.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): +0.1.
Run line: home -1.5 (37.0% cover), away 1.5 (63.0% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 8/1/2026, 2:05:11 PM.