Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
July 29, 2026 · MLB
Randy Dobnak vs Joe Ryan
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Twins wins about 52 times out of 100.
52%
Sim projects a total of 9.3 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 8 total runs most often (9% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 52.4%, away 47.6%.
Projected score: home 4.8, away 4.5.
Dispersion: 3.25.
Mean margin (home): +0.3.
Run line: home -1.5 (38.3% cover), away 1.5 (61.7% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/29/2026, 2:05:08 PM.