Detroit Tigers at Athletics
July 31, 2026 · MLB
Casey Mize vs Jeffrey Springs
TrueTail's simulation - context only
Tigers wins about 54 times out of 100.
54%
Sim projects a total of 10.3 runs.
MLB sim opinions are gated: the model does not yet beat always picking the home team (Brier 0.2495 vs 0.2493) - projections below are context, not leans.
n=10,000 simulated trials · model game-sim-v6
The distribution
TrueTail's sims land on 9 total runs most often (8% of simulated outcomes).
Show the math
Win probability: home 46.0%, away 54.0%.
Projected score: home 4.8, away 5.5.
Dispersion: 3.24.
Mean margin (home): -0.6.
Run line: home -1.5 (33.2% cover), away 1.5 (66.8% cover).
Model game-sim-v6, n=10,000, computed 7/31/2026, 2:05:17 PM.